Kali ini saya akan melakukan valuasi terhadap PT Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF). Indofood merupakan raksasa consumer goods. Ditambah lagi dengan keberhasilannya mengakuisisi LSIP menjadikannya semakin membengkak.
Selama krisis finansial yang melanda dunia ini, harga saham Indofood mau tidak mau ikut terpengaruh. Pada bulan Januari 2008 lalu, INDF sempat menyentuh level 3,175 dan akhirnya turun terus hingga saat ini di level 950. Di harga saat ini, sekilas INDF merupakan “bargain” yang menarik. Consumer goods merupakan salah satu industri defensif yang tahan krisis.
Mari kita hitung bersama 
Di harga 950 sepertinya INDF merupakan bargain yang menarik karena walaupun sudah dipasang safety margin 50% ternyata 1,513 pun masih menjadi entry price yang menarik
Disclaimer is on
23 responses so far ↓
ryad // November 20, 2008 at 12:15 am
tapi.. knp ya indf turun terus?
Chris // November 20, 2008 at 12:29 am
nyangkut nih pak di 1130
mending average down ato gmn ya?
mohon advise
thx
edison76 // November 20, 2008 at 6:20 am
datanya coba dilihat lagi bro, perusahaan mature spt indofood biasanya EPS growthnya tidak sampai level 59,19%….
parahita // November 20, 2008 at 10:11 am
@Bro Nikken
Itu saya dapatkan dari lap keu beberapa tahun terakhir. Seperti yang saya utarakan sebelumnya. Kalo ada growth lebih dari 15% langsung saya cut menjadi 15% dalam perhitungannya.
Datanya kira2 seperti ini:
Year Net Earnings (in million Rp)
2001 746,300
2002 802,630
2003 603,480
2004 386,920
2005 124,018
2006 661,210
2007 980,357
2008E 1,509,888
catatan: Net Earnings sampai dengan Q3 2008 adalah Rp 1,136,164 juta.
Yang menjadi concern saya adalah net earnings boost dari tahun 2005 – 2008. di mana dari tahun 2002-2005 INDF mengalami penurunan net earnings. Apa yang terjadi pada INDF pada tahun 2005? Seakan-akan pada tahun tsb INDF mengalami titik balik. Ada yg bisa menjelaskan?
parahita // November 20, 2008 at 10:13 am
@Chris
Selama yakin fair valuenya masih di atas harganya saat ini, mestinya malah gembira dong soalnya bisa nambah saham
Tapi memang secara psikologis hal tersebut bisa sangat menganggu karena berada dalam posisi rugi dalam jangka waktu yang cukup panjang.
parahita // November 20, 2008 at 10:15 am
@ryad
Terkadang memang market menjadi irasional bro
edison76 // November 20, 2008 at 12:01 pm
@parahita
Mungkin pertanyaan itu yang harus ditanyakan paling pertama. Mengapa perusahaan yg sudah mature spt indofood, earningnya bisa fluktuatif seperti itu? Apa alasannya?
Tanpa mengetahui latar belakang perubahan earning yang liar tersebut, maka sulit bagi kita untuk mematok earning growth sebesar 15%.
Selain itu, tanpa mengetahui penjelasan dibalik pergerakan liar earningnya, maka dikhawatirkan validitas nilai Earning yg dipakai dalam formula valuasi jadi berkurang…
parahita // November 20, 2008 at 12:39 pm
@Nikken
Point yg bagus bro. I will re-check my valuation.
risyadmum // November 21, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Saya terima jadi aja, ah.
Nyontek ya,bro.
Kapan yah gw bisa bikin valuasi sendiri? ngidam bikin valuasi INCO nih, tapi nggak pede ,he..he..bantuin donk.
manis // December 15, 2008 at 9:39 pm
check free cash flow
and return on capital vs wacc
earning is a deception
manis // December 15, 2008 at 9:46 pm
1. competition booo… maybe
let me give buffett assumption on
‘how much we can hurt these guys ?’
if i give u some capital as much as INDF, how much u can hurt them ?
mie sedap ? killing their market share
2. cyclical industri/sector
it is so obvious that the earning getting down
on 2003 2005 when oil increased by government effect the sale and cost
any other reason ? so many laaaa
means what ?
means the EARNING POWER is not so strong
there are some category buffett like to divided:
- commodity company
- consumer monopoly
- etc etc
now u can think .. which one INDF categorized ?
parahita // December 15, 2008 at 11:39 pm
@manis
I agree that sometimes earnings can be manipulated. We have to be carefully using earnings as the basis of valuation.
1. About competition, I don’t care much about Mie Sedap because when I went to “warung indomie”, I still saw the sell Indomie and not Mie Sedap :p
Why Buffett is still holding Coca Cola although it has a very strong competitor, Pepsi?
2. Indofood is not a pure commodity nor consumer. It doesn’t have a monopolistic role also. When we talk about Indomie, Indofood is a consumer goods company. When we talk about Lonsum, Indofood is a commodity company.
What I know is, Indofood has a very strong brand equity and I believe it will be stand still for a long time at its position
manis // December 16, 2008 at 7:14 pm
1. –Why Buffett is still holding Coca Cola although it has a very strong competitor, Pepsi?
not only COKE has strong brand , but pepsi still losing sale numbers OUTSIDE US / INTERNATIONALLY compare to COKE , as well as the growth
buffett using company which has sale/ revenue come from outside US to hedge against decreasing value of the dollar
check BRK report ….
2. — Indofood is not a pure commodity nor consumer. It doesn’t have a monopolistic role also. When we talk about Indomie, Indofood is a consumer goods company. When we talk about Lonsum, Indofood is a commodity company.
U need to see the number to support your own opinion, check the sector/industry
—What I know is, Indofood has a very strong brand equity and I believe it will be stand still for a long time at its position
they do have strong brand, compare to their competitor, do they had better return on capital against their wacc ?
separate opinion and fact..
parahita // December 16, 2008 at 7:41 pm
“U need to see the number to support your own opinion, check the sector/industry ”
You can’t judge a company is in a sector/industry because BEJ put it in that sector/industry
You have to read their annual reports, see what their business units are?
INDF has plantations, consumer goods (Indomie, Sarimi,Supermi), Flour, and many more.
You are talking about wacc. Now, please tell me. What is the wacc of INDF.
manis // December 16, 2008 at 8:32 pm
i dont know
)
thats why i ask u
glad to had somebody to talk to
)
dont be irritate with wht i said yak
parahita // December 16, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Hehehe. Nice to talk to you too
Senang rasanya ada pembaca yang kritis.
pratolo // December 21, 2008 at 12:08 am
wah seru juga mengikuti polemik nona manis dengan parahita. saya agak condong pd nona manis. INDF bukan termasuk portofolio saya.
http://pratolo.com/2008/09/15/ketika-musim-diskon-tiba/
Aji Monoarfa // December 31, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Bro.. coba compare antara INDF dengan UNVR waktu ada “serangan” kemarin UNVR masih lebih kuat dari semua saham bluechips. Why..? kan ga jauh beda sama INDF yang juga menguasai pangsa pasar yang cukup besar dan lama..
comment please..
Erge // January 10, 2009 at 9:44 am
Bener kok INDF emang raksasa yang ditonjok
Kemaren sempat cuan, tapi ya sedikittttt
parahita // January 10, 2009 at 12:31 pm
@Erge
INDF mainnya harus sabaaarrr Ge
parahita // January 10, 2009 at 12:36 pm
@Aji
INDF baru aja turnaround beberapa tahun belakangan ini sedangkan UNVR relatif lebih stabil kinerjanya. Ya wajar aja kalo INDF lebih gampang goyang.
Erge // January 10, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Gw Request valuasi INCO ama PGAS dong pak…
parahita // January 10, 2009 at 1:24 pm
@Erge
Entar gw coba. Kalo INCO siklikal(komo), jadi harus lebih hati2.